One of the most popular types of bets is a three-way bet on the outcome of the match. This type of betting has become even more popular after bookmakers have limited the number of bets on a draw. However, some bookmakers offer a refund of part of the draw bet under certain conditions. A draw bet is the division of your bet between the two possible winners of the match: the home team and the away team.

The average odds in the betting markets is usually 2.5, but “draw” bets are often higher value and more profitable. However, such bets also require caution and a properly constructed strategy. Football is one of the sports where such situations occur most often. For example, at the Euro-2020 championship, many teams that came out of the groups had to play extra time or penalties after a draw. It is clear that the teams do not seek to share points among themselves. Therefore, the chances at the beginning of the match are always higher. If the favourite team loses to the weaker team, the game may end in a draw. The losing team will try their best to regain their points or finish at the end of the match.

By having and using a draw strategy guide, you will be more likely to recognize such high odds games. Being disciplined is very important for online betting. If you expect a quick profit without enough information, you risk losing your money. The goal of our betting is to win, not lose, so discipline is a key aspect.

This article contains tips on how to predict draws, what strategies to use for the draw, what to consider when analysing matches, and other important information.

How to predict a draw in football

Draws in football are a frequent phenomenon, but without a developed strategy, they are difficult to predict. There are two types of bets: pre-match bets and in-game bets. When playing in online mode, you can rule out a win, especially if you see both teams playing defence and not conceding goals. In pre-match analysis, it is difficult to predict a draw because there is no real-time data.

Splitting the odds

When playing traditional markets, you have three betting options: home win, draw or away win. For example, look at these two sets of odds: (2.30, 2.80, 2.05) and (5.60, 2.80, 3.01). It’s the same game, but the odds are almost the same in the first set, but not in the second set. In both sets, the coefficient for a draw is the same – 2.80. But in the first set, the probability of a draw is greater than in the second. You need to know how the bookmaker calculates the odds in such situations: the first set means that the most likely result is a draw, and the second set means that the chances of winning in the event of a draw are very small.

The best draw betting strategies

  • The importance of league position and motivation in the game is the same for teams when they have a similar level of play and number of points. If the quality of the game does not differ, then the most likely result is a draw, because the teams have the same strength and capabilities. Bookmakers also have similar opinions and odds, usually varying between 0.5 and 0.9 for home or away, and 3.30 for a draw or less depending on the match. Analyse and familiarize yourself with previous matches and meetings, because history can repeat itself.
  • Teams that score fewer goals are more likely to draw. It is also important to look at the number of goals conceded, which affects the chances of teams. If not many goals are scored in the match, the probability of a draw increases. Teams that don’t play at a high level often can’t score many goals.
  • Recent matches often end in a draw. Teams playing at the end of the season to avoid relegation or to make it to other tournaments try not to lose and draw, and if possible, win. It is also not uncommon for favourite teams to lose, hence the chance of sharing the points increases.
  • Instruction from the trainer. Coaches who want to keep their points with the team sometimes play for a draw. This is a strategy that is often used in modern football and helps teams win cups at the end of the season. By analysing previous results, you can identify teams that have many draws or consecutive draws during a game week.
  • Teams are outsiders. If a low-ranked team plays at home, it usually plays aggressively to have more opportunities to attack and beat stronger opponents. The best teams, when facing tough opponents, often choose a draw strategy in order not to risk losing all three points as a result.

Betting strategy in progressive draws

Team selection depends on a long-term forecast that takes this strategy into account. It is used mainly in European championships and tournaments where there are playoffs and where there are often draws in the semi-final and final stages. The essence of the progressive draw strategy is that you bet on a favourite who is highly motivated to win. This is an alternative way to bet on a tie using the Martingale system.

The Martingale strategy doubles your winnings, while the progressive strategy halves it. For example: if the initial bet is 100₦, then according to the progressive strategy, the second bet will be 150₦, and in case of loss, the loss will be (100+150), and according to the Martingale strategy, it will be 200₦. If you lose 4 times in a row, the next bet is 337.0₦ for the progressive strategy and 800₦ for the Martingale strategy to double your winnings. The difference between these two strategies is that the Martingale strategy requires a higher bet than the progressive one.

It is worth analysing all the available information regarding the draw bets. It may sound simple, but in today’s world it is difficult to guess the right answer.